India’s economy set to grow 9.2% in 2021-2022: The Tribune India
Tribune press service
New Delhi, January 7
India’s economy is expected to grow 9.2% in 2021-2022, down from a 7.3% contraction in the previous fiscal year, the National Statistical Office (NSO) said while releasing the anticipated estimate of GDP for fiscal year 22.
A month ago, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) forecast a more optimistic GDP growth rate of 9.5% with inflation estimated at 5.3%. But some rating agencies fear the growing number of Omicron cases may fall 0.3% from GDP estimates for the fourth quarter.
In real figures, real GDP for fiscal year 2022 is estimated at Rs 147.54 lakh-crore, compared to the provisional estimate of GDP for fiscal year Rs 135.13 lakh-crore in fiscal year 2021 In other words, the NSO predicts that the GDP will grow by around Rs 12 lakh-crore during the current fiscal year.
However, the numbers are still lower than pre-pandemic levels. Two years ago, NSO estimated real GDP for fiscal year 20 at Rs. 147.79 lakh-crore. This means that at the end of the current budget period, real GDP will be lower than the performance achieved two years ago by Rs. 0.25 lakh crore.
GDP growth in the current fiscal year is mainly due to improved performance of the agriculture and manufacturing sectors.
“Forward estimates are more optimistic given supply bottlenecks, coal, power and semiconductor shortages and the looming third wave of the pandemic,” Brickwork Ratings analysts said. .
The forward estimates are the extrapolation of the figures based on the six to eight months of the current fiscal year. They are an essential contribution to the next fiscal year for the next fiscal year.
Despite the insufficient proceeds from divestment and the additional demand for additional subsidies, the budget deficit target of 6.8 percent of GDP is expected to be met, he said.
GDP for the second quarter of the current fiscal year grew 8.4 percent year-over-year.